ArmInfo. When drafting the 2027 state budget of Armenia, the positive economic results of the current year were taken into account. This was stated by RA Minister of Finance Vahe Hovhannisyan on November 11, while presenting the draft Basic Economic Law of the country to the National Assembly Committee on Financial, Credit and Budgetary Affairs.
According to him, the good economic indicators for 2026 were recorded against the backdrop of serious pressure coming from international markets, in particular, rising oil prices. The Ministry of Finance predicts that these prices will decrease in the near future, as evidenced by the events of last week, when oil prices actually fell. The Minister noted that despite the decline in export volumes, there is hope that next year the decline in export volumes will be insignificant, or there will be no reduction at all. In January-September 2026, slight growth is observed; tourist visits, despite the fact that this growth only became noticeable in September from virtually all directions.
Vahe Hovhannisyan also pointed to a 21.5% increase in remittances, against which the Central Bank of Armenia made significant interventions to increase state reserves. Expected GDP growth in 2026 is projected at 6%, while in January-August it was 7.3%.
Speaking about the projected GDP volumes for 2027, the minister noted that these volumes will amount to 13.614 trillion drams. The revenue side of the state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2027 is projected at 3.604 trillion drams (26.6% of GDP), which is 11.9% more than the expected level for 2026. Expenditures are planned at 4.072 trillion drams, and the state budget deficit for next year is set at 468.18 billion drams, which is 3.4% of the country's GDP. Financing of the deficit is planned to be covered by both domestic (about 187.5 billion drams) and external sources. According to the draft, real economic growth of GDP is projected at 5.8%. The GDP deflator is set at 3.1%. The tax-to-GDP ratio is expected to improve by 0.6 percentage points compared to the expected level of the previous year. In the 2027 financial year, the public debt is projected at 47% of GDP. 988.4 billion drams, or about $2.67 billion, are planned to be allocated for repayment of the public debt and interest payments. Of this amount, 416.8 billion drams will go towards interest payments alone, which is about 11% of total budget revenues. Another 571.6 billion drams will need to be allocated directly to repay the principal.
In turn, RA Central Bank Chairman Martin Galstyan reported that inflation in Armenia currently stands at 4.3%. The Central Bank has raised the refinancing rate in its last two decisions, citing the risk of higher inflationary pressure. Currently, the rate has been increased by 0.5%, reaching 7%. "We assess that our steps are adequate to the current situation, and they are aimed at achieving an inflation rate of 3% in the medium term," the Central Bank governor said.
Speaking about the reasons for the dram's strengthening, Martyn Galstyan pointed to an increase in financial flows, as well as a change in the balance of
demand and supply for foreign currency. Recently, the Central Bank has carried out a significant volume of interventions in the domestic market to minimize the imbalance in supply and demand for the US dollar.
