ArmInfo.The escalated Middle East crisis is the primary new threat to the global economy, according to the EDB's March Macroeconomic Review. It notes that geopolitical tensions have sharply increased since the end of February 2026, the most illustrative example of which is the suspension of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles ~25% of global oil and ~20% of liquefied natural gas.
The cessation of transit, the report notes, has led to a sharp increase in oil (+30%) and gas (+55%) prices by mid-March (compared to the end of February). Against this backdrop, conditions have emerged for accelerating global inflation, both due to rising prices and the increased complexity and cost of logistics. In this situation, central banks may be forced to maintain tight monetary conditions longer or even return to raising rates. Oil prices in 2026 could be higher than in 2025: in the range of $75-85 per barrel. According to the Bank's analysts, this creates the risk of a slowdown in global GDP growth of approximately 0.3-0.5 percentage points in 2026. Furthermore, disruptions to logistics routes, increased volatility in financial markets, and investment flows could exacerbate these negative consequences.
Escalation of regional tensions could have a significant negative impact on EU countries. High dependence on external supplies of oil (approximately 95%) and gas (approximately 90%) will lead to a significant increase in costs, especially in energy-intensive industries. Increased household spending on fuel and utilities is limiting other consumption, restraining economic activity. The situation is further complicated by low gas reserves following a cold winter: at the beginning of March, storage facilities were approximately 35% full, 16 percentage points below the five-year average. Gas storage facilities need to be filled, which, given rising prices, significantly limits investment spending. Therefore, the expansion of defense and infrastructure spending is likely to be delayed, reducing the scope for fiscal stimulus in 2026. Given these conditions, the Bank's analysts maintained their forecast for a slowdown in the eurozone economy to 1.1% in 2026.
With geopolitical tensions intensifying, the risks of a slowdown in the US economy are also increasing. The main factors are rising raw material prices and new costs due to disrupted supply chains. Gas and energy prices are rising, meaning household purchasing power is declining, as are consumption indicators. Even if the expected easing of tariff pressure from July partially alleviates the situation, it will not be enough to fully offset the negative effects. Against this backdrop, the Bank's analysts maintained their forecast for US economic growth to slow to 1.6% in 2026.
The direct impact of the Middle East energy shock on China is limited, but indirect risks remain significant. Strategic oil reserves-approximately four months of consumption-soften the effect of rising energy prices. However, a possible slowdown in the global economy and external demand could negatively impact Chinese exports.
The report notes that damage to the Gulf oil and gas producing countries increases the risk of persistently elevated energy prices for several quarters. In addition to major central banks likely raising key rates, borrowing costs in global markets can be expected to increase. Heightened global risks are hindering global investment activity and slowing global trade and financial flows, shifting the emphasis to domestically- sourced development. For countries in the EDB region, the implications will be mixed. Energy exporters- primarily Russia and Kazakhstan-may benefit from increased export revenues, budget revenues, and additional support for business activity. For net importers, on the contrary, higher energy prices mean higher import costs. This effect may be partially offset by higher metal prices, which will support export revenues for individual countries in the region. However, if the energy shock persists for a long time, a global economic slowdown could limit external demand and export opportunities in the medium term.
