ArmInfo. Statistics for the second half of 2026 will reveal the impact of restrictions on Armenian exports to Russia. Anna Fedyunina, associate professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told TASS.
"It is clear that the most significant impact on Armenian exports to Russia will be seen in the second half of 2026, when the restrictions come into force and affect a significant portion of seasonal supplies of berries, vegetables, and fruits," the expert said.
The restrictive measures were introduced in stages from the end of May and throughout June 2026. "These restrictions were applied successively to tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, herbs, and strawberries, followed by stone fruits and grapes, as well as potatoes, dried fruits, and certain types of fish products, alcoholic beverages, and mineral water," Fedyunina recalled. Moreover, in the first five months of 2026, exports to Russia of goods in categories subsequently subject to restrictions increased compared to the same period in 2025.
According to Fedyunina, this trend may be due to the effect of preemptive deliveries. "This effect, while perhaps surprising, is well known in international trade studies: before any trade ban is imposed, businesses in the exporting country seek to sell as much as possible," she said, emphasizing that, under such circumstances, businesses in the importing country seek to stockpile as many products as possible that are subject to restrictions.
According to calculations by the HSE Center for Structural Policy Research, based on UN Comtrade data in FOB prices, in January
- May 2026, Armenia's exports totaled $2.86 billion, a decrease of 3.7% compared to the same period in 2025. "Moreover, in May, the decline had already accelerated to 11.6% year-on-year." "Therefore, for now, we are talking more about export stabilization after the sharp decline in 2025 than about a new precipitous decline," the expert noted.
Armenia's exports to Russia, based on data for the first five months of 2026, also do not yet show a sharp decline.
"According to our estimates, Armenia's exports to Russia amounted to $1,177.6 million in the first five months of 2024, $1,078.3 million in the same period of 2025, and $1,028.8 million in 2026. Thus, compared to 2025, the decline was approximately 4.6%, and compared to 2024, approximately 12.6%," she concluded.
