Tuesday, July 7 2026 11:30
Karina Melikyan

Economic activity accelerating in Armenia, foreign trade struggling  to end recession 

Economic activity accelerating in Armenia, foreign trade struggling  to end recession 

ArmInfo. In Armenia, economic activity growth accelerated to 8% annually in January-May 2026 (from 5.7% in the same period of 2025). Moreover, the industrial sector,  having managed to recover from the recession to double-digit growth,  has recovered its position as one of the drivers of economic growth.  According to the final data from the Statistical Committee of the  Republic of Armenia, foreign trade is still in decline, but only  slightly, in contrast to the significant decline a year ago.

According to statistics, the acceleration of economic activity in  January-May 2026 was driven by improved annual growth in the  industrial sector, which rose from a 14.1% decline to 12.2%, and  accelerated growth in the construction sector, from 17.1% to 24.1%.  Growth in the energy sector accelerated significantly, from 3.6% to  9.7%. Meanwhile, the leading trade sector by volume continued to  decline, from 4.2% to 1.2%. The services sector, second in volume,  also slowed, but less noticeably, from 10.1% to 9.1%.

According to statistics for January-May 2026, the trade sector  retained its leadership in absolute terms, with a volume of 2.6  trillion drams ($6.8 billion). The services sector ranks second in  terms of volume with 1.7 trillion drams ($4.6 billion), followed by  the industrial sector with 1.3 trillion drams ($3.4 billion), and the  construction sector, with 207.3 billion drams ($552.1 million), due  to the lack of data on the agricultural sector in this statistical  report. Electricity generation in January-May 2026 amounted to  4,380.9 million kWh, of which 770.2 million kWh was generated in May  alone.

An acceleration in economic activity growth was also observed in May  2026 compared to May 2025, from 10.4% to 11.7%, with growth in May  alone advancing from 6% to 9.9% (compared to a less noticeable  acceleration in May 2025 from 4.3% to 5.4%). Moreover, in May 2026,  the industrial sector's growth reversed from a 0.2% decline to 1.2%  growth, a similar figure to the same month a year earlier, when it  reversed from a 3.9% decline to 2.9% growth.

The energy sector also saw an improvement in May, with growth rising  from a 20.1% decline to 2.6%. At the same time, growth accelerated in  the construction sector in May, from 18.6% to 27.2%, and in the  services sector, from 3.4% to 6.9%. Meanwhile, the trade sector's  growth in May worsened from 1.9% growth to a 1.6% decline. In annual  terms (May 2026 to May 2025), all sectors demonstrated an upward  trend. In particular, the construction sector demonstrated the  highest annual growth - 27.1%, followed by double-digit rates in the  energy sector - 16.8% and the service sector - 14.7%. The industrial  sector managed to recover from the recession with 9.5% growth. At the  same time, the trade sector stagnated. A year earlier, in May 2025 to  May 2024, with the exception of the industrial sector (5.9%) and the  energy complex (2.4%), which declined, other sectors maintained  growth: the construction sector - 22.2%, the service sector - 10.8%,  and the trade sector - 0.9%.

Against this backdrop, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in  January-May 2026 amounted to 2.95 trillion drams ($7.9 billion), a  decline of only 0.1% year-on-year (compared to a 49% decline a year  ago). This significant slowdown in the decline was due to an  improvement in import dynamics, from a 42% decline to 2.2% growth,  and a noticeable slowdown in export decline from 57.4% to 3.7%. As a  result, the absolute value of exports for January-May 2026 amounted  to 1.1 trillion drams ($2.9 billion), while imports amounted to 1.9  trillion drams ($4.99 billion).

In May 2026, compared to May 2025, foreign trade turnover also  remained in decline, but also with a slowdown in growth, from 28.8%  to 5.3%. Specifically, the decline in exports slowed from 39.3% to  11.5%, while imports fell from 20.4% to 1.6%. In May alone, foreign  trade turnover fell by 5.6%, with exports falling by 4.7% and imports  by 6.1%. This was also observed in the same month a year earlier, but  at that time, the decline rates were double-digit - 14.8%, 19%, and  12%, respectively.

Starting in 2023, the methodology for calculating electricity  generation volumes in statistical reports has changed; in particular,  the volume of electricity generated by independent producers has now  been included. For the agricultural sector, data is published only in  quarterly and annual statistical reports. (The average dram exchange  rate in January-May 2026 was 375.53 drams per US dollar, compared to  392.72 drams per US dollar a year ago.)