ArmInfo. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) does not expect significant revisions to Armenia's economic growth rate in 2026. Alexey Kuznetsov, Head of the EDB's Research Directorate, stated this to journalists on June 25 in Almaty on the sidelines of the annual meeting and business forum marking the bank's 20th anniversary. He recalled that the EDB's latest macroeconomic forecast was released just a week or two ago.
"We publish forecasts every six months, and we don't expect any significant revisions to Armenia's economic growth rate in 2026. Our forecast is for growth of approximately 5.5% in 2026. We don't expect any significant deviations or changes from the economy's current state prior to 2025, and we didn't factor them into our baseline forecast," Kuznetsov noted.
Regarding the possible revision of forecasts, given the restrictions Russia has imposed on Armenian products, Kuznetsov emphasized that Armenia's economy is currently growing at a very rapid pace. He added that it continues to gain momentum, and many internal drivers are driving this growth. "Therefore, we don't expect any clear, significant cooling, and we haven't yet included it in the baseline forecast. If we see a deviating trend-and we are constantly monitoring it-we will reflect this in our November macroeconomic forecast, which will cover the situation in 2027. We will definitely assess it and share it with you," the analyst noted.
According to Kuznetsov, the EDB is not considering a negative scenario for Armenia and is working within the baseline scenario. "For example, if we look at foreign direct investment inflows into Armenia, approximately 90% comes from Eurasian countries. This is a significant figure, which speaks to the potential consequences, one way or the other," he noted.
In turn, Artur Sharafuddinov, Head of the EDB's Country Analysis Center, also noted that the main drivers of Armenia's economic growth are domestic. "It's worth noting the growth rate of fixed capital investment, which reached almost 20% in 2025. We also saw similar dynamics in the first quarter of this year.
Therefore, we can say that it is precisely internal drivers that are driving this high economic growth.
Domestic demand will also support it. Mortgage lending and construction are growing. The economy will also be supported by public investment, which, as far as I remember, will remain at around 6% of GDP over the next three years," Sharafuddinov added. He also noted the continued growth of private transfers to Armenia.
