ArmInfo. The future of Armenia's strategically important and existentially significant energy sector - nuclear energy - is effectively in question. This is the opinion of Vahe Davtyan, an expert on Armenian energy security and a doctor of political science.
According to him, Baku is announcing the construction of a nuclear power plant. Azerbaijani Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov stated that the country's energy balance will be based on three components: hydrocarbons, renewable energy, and "peaceful atom." Meanwhile, in Armenia, which remains the only country in the region with "peaceful atom," the future of this strategically important and existentially significant sector is effectively in question.
"Moscow clearly states that if Yerevan continues its current foreign policy course, the modernization of the Armenian nuclear power plant may be halted after 2031. This means that even the seemingly predictable 2036 target is now in question. In fact, the modular reactor project with a drum system, the entire implementation cycle of which will take at least 7-8 years, is also in question. However, these processes are entirely logical and complementary.
Liberalization of the electricity market - interconnection of energy systems with Azerbaijan - paralysis of the national nuclear energy sector - imports from Azerbaijan. We also do not forget the strategic ties between Azerbaijan and Pakistan and the potential cooperation in the field of military nuclear energy, with all the ensuing consequences," Vahe Davtyan emphasized.
As a reminder, three years ago, Maria Longhi, coordinator of US government assistance programs for Europe and Eurasia, reported that the United States was considering the construction of small modular nuclear reactors in Armenia and other Eurasian states, "aiming to strengthen their energy independence." She added that in a number of countries, including Armenia, the US is evaluating the possibility of creating small modular nuclear reactors built using American technology, which could lead to greater energy independence from both Russia and China.
Meanwhile, a second program is currently underway at Unit 2 of the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant (ANPP) to extend its service life by 10 years, until 2036. By that time, a new nuclear power unit is scheduled to be built in the republic. Countries such as the US, Russia, South Korea, and China have expressed interest in building a new NPP in Armenia. Back in July 2023, the Armenian government sent a working group to the United States to review American nuclear technologies, small modular reactors, and their developments. Pashinyan has repeatedly stated that a strategic decision has been made to build a small modular nuclear power plant. "Why? One important reason is that, as experts explained to us, accidents at modular nuclear power plants are considered localized emergencies, meaning that in the event of an accident at a nuclear power plant, there will be no threat beyond a 500-meter radius," he stated. Notably, during Vice President J.D. Vance's visit to Armenia on February 9, an agreement was signed to continue cooperation in the development of civilian nuclear energy worth $9 billion, under which Yerevan will receive small modular reactor technology. However, on February 11, in parliament, responding to a question from NA Deputy Speaker Ruben Rubinyan about when the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant would finally be closed and with whom Armenia would cooperate on building a new one, Pashinyan stated that Armenia was still deciding which nuclear power plant to build. He stated that the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant's operational life could be extended until 2046. Previously, it was assumed that this lifespan would extend until 2036. He added that a decision on building a new plant could be made during this time.
It should also be noted that, according to the Strategic Plan for the Development of the Energy Sector of the Republic of Armenia (until 2040) and the schedule for its implementation, Armenia plans to increase the capacity of solar and wind power plants to a total of at least 2,000 MW by 2040. As a result, the share of electricity generated using renewable energy sources in gross final electricity consumption in 2030, including large hydroelectric power plants, will reach about 50%, and by 2040 - about 60%.
