ArmInfo. Economic activity in Russia in the first quarter of 2026 was expected to slow amid adjustments to tax changes, but more positive dynamics are possible in the second quarter, according to the "What the Trends Say" bulletin prepared by the Central Bank's Research and Forecasting Department.
"The Russian economy expectedly cooled in the first quarter of 2026. This was partly due to a shift in demand to the fourth quarter of 2025 and the adaptation of businesses and consumers to tax changes. Statistics for February indicate that the decline in demand at the beginning of the year is likely temporary," the review notes.
"The dynamics of the Russian economy in the first quarter of 2026 were subdued. At the same time, intra-quarter economic activity dynamics are characterized by divergence across sectors and ambiguity. For example, February statistics indicated growth in basic industries. However, industry recorded a slight decline, and consumer consumption remained unchanged compared to January (adjusted for seasonal and calendar factors). In March, on the contrary, consumption, according to operational data, showed growth, while survey indicators and payment data point rather to a cooling in the economy as a whole," the report states.
"Therefore, it can be assumed that consumer adaptation has generally ended and the sector has resumed growth. In other sectors, adaptation is protracted. Moreover, adaptation in export industries will be aided by the fact that they have benefited from rising global prices and demand for their products due to the conflict in the Middle East. At a minimum, we can expect an improvement in financial results in these industries," the Central Bank analysts note.
"The moderate, steady growth of retail and corporate lending also provides grounds for expecting more positive economic growth overall in the second quarter. This should primarily impact large and medium-sized businesses. However, post-adjustment economic growth rates will only be more confidently assessed following the results of the second quarter of 2026," the Central Bank forecasts for the second quarter.
