ArmInfo. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects the US budget deficit in fiscal year 2026, which ends on September 30, to increase slightly to $1.853 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP.
The deficit by the end of fiscal year 2025 has decreased by 2.3% to $1.775 trillion (also 5.8% of GDP).
The CBO expects the deficit-to-GDP ratio to average 6.1% over the next ten years and reach 6.7% in fiscal year 2036.
The US national debt in fiscal year 2036 will reach $56.152 trillion (120% of GDP), compared to $30.172 trillion (99% of GDP) in the previous fiscal year. Moreover, by 2030, the debt level will rise to 108% of GDP, surpassing the previous record of 106% of GDP, which was set in 1946 after the end of World War II.
The US government posted a record budget deficit of $3.1 trillion in fiscal year 2020. The last time the budget was balanced with a surplus was in fiscal year 2001.
The US economy will expand by 2.2% in calendar year 2026, and over the next ten years, annual growth will be around 1.8%, according to the agency's forecast.
GDP growth is projected at 1.8% in 2035, 1.5% in 2045, and 1.4% in 2055.
Inflation (PCE index) is expected to be 2.7% this year, 2.3% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028 and 2029. It will then fall to the Federal Reserve's target level of 2% and remain there for the remainder of the period under review.
Ten-year Treasury bond rates will average 4.1% in 2026, 4.3% in 2027-2030, and then rise to 4.4%. (finmarket)
