ArmInfo. The relocation impacti on the economic growth of Armenia is estimated at one third. RA Minister of Economy Vahan Keroyan stated this in an interview to the Public Television of Armenia.
Last year, according to him, 37,000 companies were opened in Armenia, of which 12,000 were LLCs and CJSCs, and 25,000 were individual entrepreneurs. < All of them are involved in creating high economic growth. But we have to accept that all this is happening due to government reforms, as well as large-scale stimulus programs being implemented and the transformation of the global economy due to the geopolitical situation>, the head of the department said.
In this regard, he drew attention to the fact that even before the start of the war in Ukraine, in particular, in the first 2 months of 2022, Armenia managed to ensure a 12% economic growth. Kerobyan stressed that the environment created over the years in the country allowed foreign citizens to stay in Armenia, rather than move to another country. In particular, in this context, the minister noted that the retention rate in Armenia is relatively higher than in other countries where foreign citizens also relocated. In total, he stressed that 110 thousand people moved to Armenia, of which 57% have Armenian surnames. "That is, these are people who returned to Armenia, rather than immigrated," he said.
It should be reminded that during a press conference on May 2, Head of the Central Bank of Armenia Martin Galstyan, referring to the results of a survey conducted by German Economic, noted that the vast majority of immigrants have long-term plans with Armenia. And at least half of the citizens who moved to Armenia plan to live here for more than a year.
According to preliminary data from the RA Statistical Committee, in Armenia, the growth of economic activity in Q1 2023 accelerated to 12.2% per annum (from 9.6% Q1 2022), far exceeding even the pre- Covid 6.5% growth in Q1 2019. The service sector, the trade sector and the construction sector continue to be the drivers of economic growth. It should be noted that the Central Bank of Armenia forecasts a slowdown in GDP growth to 5.8% for 2023, expecting a slowdown in export and import growth to 14.3- 14.6%. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the GDP growth of Armenia will slow down in 2023 to 5.5%, and according to the forecast of the World Bank - to 4.1%. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects Armenia's GDP growth to slow down to 4% in 2023. The Asian Development Bank forecasts a slowdown in Armenia's GDP growth to 6.5% in 2023. According to the forecast of the Fitch rating agency for 2023, Armenia's GDP growth will slow down to 6.1%, and the S&P rating agency expects the Armenian economy to grow by an average of 4.3% per year over the next few years. According to actual statistics, Armenia's GDP growth in 2022 accelerated to 12.6% from 5.7% in 2021 (against a 7.2% decline in 2020).
